The Funhouse Mirror

From CREA: 

The national average home price was down in March from where it stood last year. But home prices are not declining. Confused?

Average prices are affected by changes in the mix of sales, so year-over-year price comparisons can be like looking in a funhouse mirror: distorted.

To illustrate: line up a class of kids by height, calculate the average. Now excuse the ten tallest kids and recalculate the average. The average height has declined, but the kids haven't gotten any shorter.

A year ago, the national average price was pitched up by surging sales activity in some of Vancouver's priciest neighbourhoods. With activity there having subsequently returned to earth, the average has declined.

By contrast, the MLS^® Home Price Index (HPI) is not affected by changes in the mix of sales. It's based on a sophisticated model of buyers' willingness to pay for various features that contribute to a home's value, and provides a clear picture of home price trends. The MLS^® HPI remains up from year-ago levels, so the reality is that home prices are still climbing in the five major markets that it currently covers. That includes Vancouver, where the average price was down from where it stood last year.

View this month's monthly averages stats release.
View this month's MLS^® Home Price Index release.

Best Regards,
~nj
--
Nick Jamal VP Commercial Division, Broker, BSc, BA, CCIM 

RE/MAX Twin City Realty Inc., Brokerage 
83 Erb Street West Waterloo,ON N2L 6C2
T 519 885 0200 Toll 877 450 0200 F 519 885 4914
njamal@remax.net www.nickjamal.com
"Consider it SOLD !"®

Canadian Home Sales Pull back in January

OTTAWA – February 15, 2012 – According to statistics[1] released today by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), national resale housing activity retreated in January 2012 from the strong finish reported for December 2011.

Highlights:
Home sales were down 4.5% from December to January.
Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity came in 4.0% above levels in January 2011, and stood even with the 5 and 10 year averages for January sales.
The number of newly listed homes edged down 1.4% from December to January.
With sales down by more than new listings, the national market shifted further into balanced territory.

The national average home price was up less than 2% year-over-year in January, ranking it among the smallest increases of the past year.
Sales activity recorded through the MLS® Systems of real estate Boards and Associations in Canada fell 4.5 per cent from December 2011 to January 2012. This marks the first monthly decline in national activity since August 2011 and the biggest monthly decline since July 2010. The monthly decline reversed a string of monthly increases over the closing months of last year, and returned national activity to where it stood at the end of the third quarter of 2011.
“The national housing market is stabilizing and remains well balanced,” said Gary Morse, CREA’s President. “That said, forecasts for economic and job growth going forward vary widely for different parts of the country, suggesting a possible continuation of a softening trend in some markets, as well as the potential that demand will pick up based on strong fundamentals in others. All real estate is local, so talk to your local REALTOR® to understand how price trends in your neighbourhood are shaping up.”

Activity was down in over half of all local markets in January from the previous month. Led by declines in Greater Toronto and Montréal, demand also softened in a number of other major urban centres including the Fraser Valley, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Ottawa, and Greater Vancouver.

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) national sales activity was up four per cent from year-ago levels in January, the smallest year-over-year increase since last May. As was the case in a number of months last year, actual sales in January 2012 stood close to the five and ten year average for the month.

The number of newly listed homes edged down 1.4 per cent on a month-over-month basis in January following a 2.9 per cent increase in December. The monthly decline in new supply reflects a drop in new listings in a number of Canada’s largest urban centres, which offset a jump in new listings in Vancouver.
Sales fell in January shifting the national market back towards the mid-point of balanced territory and reversing the recent trend which had seen the market becoming tighter over the final four months of 2011. The national sales-to-new listings ratio, a measure of market balance, stood at 53.8 per cent in January, down from 55.5 per cent in December and 55.4 per cent in November.

Based on a sales-to-new listings ratio of between 40 to 60 per cent, 60 per cent of local markets were balanced in January. Compared to December, there were fewer buyers’ and sellers’ markets, and a greater number of balanced markets.
The number of months of inventory stood at six months at the end of January on a national basis, up from 5.7 months in December 2011 and returning it to where it stood in October 2011. The number of months of inventory represents the number of months it would take to sell current inventories at the current rate of sales activity, and is another measure of the balance between housing supply and demand.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average price for homes sold in January 2012 was $348,178, representing an increase of 1.2 per cent from its year-ago level. This ranks among the smallest increases since late 2010.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the national average home price rose 1.6 per cent on a month-over-month basis, marking a rebound from a decline of similar magnitude in December. This pattern mirrors the one playing out in the newly-launched MLS® Home Price Index (HPI), published on February 6.

“Year-over-year comparisons in the national average price are expected to become volatile and may turn negative, reflecting average price developments in the first half of 2011 in Vancouver,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s Chief Economist. “At that time, high-end home sales in Vancouver’s priciest neighbourhoods surged to all-time record levels, which skewed the national average price upward considerably. A replay of this phenomenon is not expected this year. As a result, comparisons for national average price to year-ago levels over the coming months will reflect an upwardly skewed base effect. For this reason, year-over-year comparisons should be kept in perspective. Developments in the MLS® HPI will provide important guidance on price trends, since it is not affected by the problem of compositional shifts in the mix of sales activity.”

The MLS® HPI also takes into account the contributions toward the price of a home made by a broad range of quantitative and qualitative housing features, allowing it to track Canadian home price trends better than any other measure.

1 All figures in this release except average price are seasonally adjusted. Removing normal seasonal variations enables meaningful analysis of monthly changes and fundamental trends.










PLEASE NOTE: The information contained in this news release combines both major market and national MLS® sales information from the previous month.
CREA cautions that average price information can be useful in establishing trends over time, but does not indicate actual prices in centres comprised of widely divergent neighborhoods or account for price differential between geographic areas. Statistical information contained in this report includes all housing types.
MLS® is a co-operative marketing system used only by Canada’s real estate Boards to ensure maximum exposure of properties listed for sale.
The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada’s largest single-industry trade associations, representing more than 100,000 REALTORS® working through more than 100 real estate Boards and Associations.
For more information, please contact:
Media only: Pierre LeducMedia RelationsTel.: 613-237-7111 or 613-884-1460E-mail: pleduc@crea.ca
All other requests: Janet LemoineMLS® Statistics CoordinatorE-mail: jlemoine@crea.ca

Little change in Canadian housing market expected in 2012 and 2013

REPORT IDENTIFIES 12 KEY TRENDS IN COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

Boston, February 13, 2012—It may be a little harder to acquire a state-of-the-art, big-box warehouse facility in 2012, while retailers may have to pay slightly more to rent space in a well-located strip mall. And the line for a hotel room may be a little shorter. Those are among the key real estate trends that CBRE Econometric Advisors (CBRE EA) has identified in a forthcoming new report, “12 Trends for 2012.”

CBRE EA predicts that demand growth for hotel rooms will slow in 2012 as the hotel recovery matures and decelerates and the European economic crisis potentially dampens already-weakened international travel to the U.S.

Conversely, there will be increased demand for large U.S. warehouse facilities, CBRE EA says, because low rents levels are encouraging occupiers to consolidate or upgrade into larger, higher quality locations, pointing to a potential shortage of such space.

Meanwhile, U.S. retail rents have reached bottom and are poised to rise moderately toward the end of the year says CBRE EA, spurred by absorption gaining momentum as the economic recovery becomes more robust.

“While economic uncertainty still overhangs the commercial real estate environment, 12 Trends for 2012 offers a practical, sector by sector, analysis, for owners, occupiers and investors looking for insight that goes beyond ‘conventional wisdom’” said Jon Southard, Director of Forecasting, CBRE EA.

Other key trends for 2012, according to CBRE EA are:

• Cap rate compression will end and could begin to rise over the next two years because of a subdued risk appetite by investors and continued credit availability limitations.

• Suburban office market fundamentals will continue to improve, building on the gains achieved in 2011. This trend will defy critics who have sounded the death knell of suburban offices.

• Trains will continue to displace trucks as a means of moving good across country but the rise of rail will continue to be incremental in 2012. Furthermore, markets that operate on regional distribution axes for medium-to-long-range rail supply routes may witness an increase in warehouse demand, if the price of gasoline keeps the cost of commuting high, and if faster, more efficient trains boost usage rates near urban centers.

• Distress in the debt markets will reach its peak, but opportunities will continue to abound for some time for nimble investors.

• The U.S. housing market should see a slight improvement in price trends along with moderate rent growth this year, paving the way for a more sustained recovery in following years.

• Finance job cuts should end by mid-year as the overall national economy and housing market improves.

Note to editors/journalists: For a full copy of the report email robert.mcgrath@cbre.com

KITCHENER-WATERLOO HOME SALES DOWN IN JANUARY – AVERAGE SALE PRICE REACHES NEW HIGH KITCHENER-WATERLOO, ON (February 9, 2012)

Sales of residential properties by REALTORS® through the Multiple Listing System (MLS®) of the Kitchener-Waterloo Association of REALTORS® (KWAR) were down 7.8 percent compared to last year, but in line with the 10 year average for January. There were a total of 342 residential properties sold last month, which included 220 detached homes (down 10.6%), 74 condominium units (up 15.6%), 21 semis (down 32.3%), and 25 freehold townhouses (down 7.4%) from last year. While sales were down, the average price of all residential properties sold through the MLS® System of the KWAR soared in January, with an increase of 12.9 percent to $315,932. Detached homes sold for an average price of $361,470 in January, a 14.5 percent increase relative to one year ago. The average sale price for a condominium unit was $222,873 last month, a 17.9 percent increase compared to last year. “We were seeing more activity among move-up buyers in January,” says Sara HIll, President of the KWAR. She points out that whereas in January of last year we had 70 percent of sales happening under the $300,000 mark, this past month the share of sales happening under $300,000 was 56 percent. More sales in the higher price ranges exerted upward pressure on the average sale price. “It is only a matter of time before we will see a return of the first-time buyers,” said Hill. “Unfortunately this segment of the market is most influenced by the doom and gloom that is out there right now, and even though lending rates have never been lower, first-time buyers are still a little cautious,” she added. The dollar volume of all residential real estate sold last month was $108,048,599, a 7.9 percent increase compared to December 2011, and a 4 percent increase relative to the same period last year. The KWAR cautions that average sale price information can be useful in establishing long term trends, but should not be used as an indicator that specific properties have increased or decreased in value. The average sale price is calculated based on the total dollar volume of all properties sold. Those requiring specific information on property values should contact a me antime at njamal@remax.net.

Balanced conditions set to return to most Canadian housing markets in 2012

Balanced conditions set to return to most Canadian housing markets in 2012,

while residential values expected to once again set new records, says RE/MAX

Canadian residential real estate defied conventional logic and outperformed expectations in 2011, posting another solid year of housing activity virtually across the board. The trend is expected to carry forward into 2012 as Canadians continue to demonstrate their faith in homeownership, despite concerns over the European debt crisis and its impact on the global economy, according to a report released by RE/MAX.

The RE/MAX Housing Market Outlook 2012 examined trends and developments in 26 major markets across the country. Eighty-eight per cent (23/26) anticipated average price increases by year-end 2011—with percentage hikes ranging from one to 16 per cent. The forecast for 2012 shows the upward trend moderating, but still ahead of 2011 figures. Overall home sales are expected to remain on par or ahead of last year’s levels in 85 per cent (22/26) of markets in 2011—including Saskatoon with a year-over-year percentage increase of 13 per cent and an eight per cent uptick in Calgary, Winnipeg, Hamilton-Burlington and Sudbury. Almost half of Canadian markets will match the 2011 performance, while the remainder should post increases ranging from one to five per cent next year.

By year-end 2011, an estimated 460,000 homes are expected to change hands, up three per cent from the 447,010 units reported in 2010. Sales are expected to climb one per cent to 464,500 units in 2012. The value of a Canadian home is set to climb to $363,000 this year—an increase of seven per cent over the $339,030 posted one year ago. By year-end 2012, the average price in Canada is forecast to appreciate two per cent to $371,000.

The Canadian housing market has demonstrated tremendous resilience in recent years, but 2011 stands out. Instead of responding to economic concerns both here and abroad with a retreat in sales and prices, residential real estate markets actually experienced an upswing in the volatile third and final quarters. While clearly not impervious to the impact, Canadian consumers are intent on making their moves now, in advance of higher housing values and rising interest rates down the road.

Improvement in both provincial and local economies, especially during the second half of 2012, should serve to further stimulate home-buying activity. Calgary, Saskatoon, and Halifax-Dartmouth will likely lead the country in unit sales in 2012, each with a projected increase of five per cent. Regina, Greater Toronto, Saint John, Moncton, and St. John’s anticipate a three per cent increase in home sales next year.

The economic underpinnings support ongoing demand, particularly as job creation efforts continue and unemployment rates edge down further. Nationally, we remain on an upward track, and the confidence consumers have demonstrated in housing over the past decade will prove well founded once again next year. The rising belief in homeownership is key, especially among Generation X and Y—some of whom are making their moves sooner. Boomers and retirees are changing, too. They’re healthier and more active, with longer life expectancy. Overall, we’re seeing an extension of the homeownership cycle, and it’s great news for housing.

-more-

RE/MAX Housing Market Outlook 2012….2

While tighter supply levels contributed to steady price appreciation in most major markets across Canada this year, an increase in inventory more in line with years previous should ease upward pressure on average price in the year ahead. The highest appreciation is expected in Regina, where values are forecast to increase eight per cent, followed by Greater Toronto, Halifax-Dartmouth, and St, John’s—each posting a five per cent gain. Overall, 81 per cent of the markets examined are forecast to set new records for average price next year. Noteworthy milestones include Greater Vancouver, which will break the $800,000 threshold, as well as Regina and Kitchener-Waterloo, which will reach the $300,000 mark.

While prices will remain on the upswing, buyers will benefit from greater selection moving forward. Stability or modest growth will characterize sales activity while GDP moves forward at a more muted pace in 2012. Whether markets will meet or potentially exceed projections will hinge largely on consumer confidence. An unexpected call for interest rate hikes could also serve to bolster sales.

Other highlights include:

· Population growth and immigration are major factors expected to prop-up housing demand and household formation in the coming years. Since 2000, Canada’s population has experienced double-digit growth of 11 per cent. By 2031, over 42 million people are expected to call Canada home.

· Investment will also continue in Canada’s major centres, with income-producing properties at the top of the most wanted list. Low vacancy rates and stock market volatility reinvigorated this segment of the market in 2011 and the very same factors are forecast to influence sales moving forward.

· Condominiums are expected to gain an increasing share of the marketplace, particularly in Western Canada and Ontario. A focus on higher density urban growth is impacting purchasing patterns and introducing new, affordable options—critical to the attainability of homeownership as prices continue to move upward.

· Housing stock in major Canadian centres will improve as municipalities focus on redevelopment and revitalization.

RE/MAX Housing Market Outlook 2012…3

Balanced conditions set to return to most Canadian housing markets in 2012

Balanced conditions set to return to most Canadian housing markets in 2012,

while residential values expected to once again set new records, says RE/MAX

Canadian residential real estate defied conventional logic and outperformed expectations in 2011, posting another solid year of housing activity virtually across the board. The trend is expected to carry forward into 2012 as Canadians continue to demonstrate their faith in homeownership, despite concerns over the European debt crisis and its impact on the global economy, according to a report released by RE/MAX.

The RE/MAX Housing Market Outlook 2012 examined trends and developments in 26 major markets across the country. Eighty-eight per cent (23/26) anticipated average price increases by year-end 2011—with percentage hikes ranging from one to 16 per cent. The forecast for 2012 shows the upward trend moderating, but still ahead of 2011 figures. Overall home sales are expected to remain on par or ahead of last year’s levels in 85 per cent (22/26) of markets in 2011—including Saskatoon with a year-over-year percentage increase of 13 per cent and an eight per cent uptick in Calgary, Winnipeg, Hamilton-Burlington and Sudbury. Almost half of Canadian markets will match the 2011 performance, while the remainder should post increases ranging from one to five per cent next year.

By year-end 2011, an estimated 460,000 homes are expected to change hands, up three per cent from the 447,010 units reported in 2010. Sales are expected to climb one per cent to 464,500 units in 2012. The value of a Canadian home is set to climb to $363,000 this year—an increase of seven per cent over the $339,030 posted one year ago. By year-end 2012, the average price in Canada is forecast to appreciate two per cent to $371,000.

The Canadian housing market has demonstrated tremendous resilience in recent years, but 2011 stands out. Instead of responding to economic concerns both here and abroad with a retreat in sales and prices, residential real estate markets actually experienced an upswing in the volatile third and final quarters. While clearly not impervious to the impact, Canadian consumers are intent on making their moves now, in advance of higher housing values and rising interest rates down the road.

Improvement in both provincial and local economies, especially during the second half of 2012, should serve to further stimulate home-buying activity. Calgary, Saskatoon, and Halifax-Dartmouth will likely lead the country in unit sales in 2012, each with a projected increase of five per cent. Regina, Greater Toronto, Saint John, Moncton, and St. John’s anticipate a three per cent increase in home sales next year.

The economic underpinnings support ongoing demand, particularly as job creation efforts continue and unemployment rates edge down further. Nationally, we remain on an upward track, and the confidence consumers have demonstrated in housing over the past decade will prove well founded once again next year. The rising belief in homeownership is key, especially among Generation X and Y—some of whom are making their moves sooner. Boomers and retirees are changing, too. They’re healthier and more active, with longer life expectancy. Overall, we’re seeing an extension of the homeownership cycle, and it’s great news for housing.

-more-

RE/MAX Housing Market Outlook 2012….2

While tighter supply levels contributed to steady price appreciation in most major markets across Canada this year, an increase in inventory more in line with years previous should ease upward pressure on average price in the year ahead. The highest appreciation is expected in Regina, where values are forecast to increase eight per cent, followed by Greater Toronto, Halifax-Dartmouth, and St, John’s—each posting a five per cent gain. Overall, 81 per cent of the markets examined are forecast to set new records for average price next year. Noteworthy milestones include Greater Vancouver, which will break the $800,000 threshold, as well as Regina and Kitchener-Waterloo, which will reach the $300,000 mark.

While prices will remain on the upswing, buyers will benefit from greater selection moving forward. Stability or modest growth will characterize sales activity while GDP moves forward at a more muted pace in 2012. Whether markets will meet or potentially exceed projections will hinge largely on consumer confidence. An unexpected call for interest rate hikes could also serve to bolster sales.

Other highlights include:

· Population growth and immigration are major factors expected to prop-up housing demand and household formation in the coming years. Since 2000, Canada’s population has experienced double-digit growth of 11 per cent. By 2031, over 42 million people are expected to call Canada home.

· Investment will also continue in Canada’s major centres, with income-producing properties at the top of the most wanted list. Low vacancy rates and stock market volatility reinvigorated this segment of the market in 2011 and the very same factors are forecast to influence sales moving forward.

· Condominiums are expected to gain an increasing share of the marketplace, particularly in Western Canada and Ontario. A focus on higher density urban growth is impacting purchasing patterns and introducing new, affordable options—critical to the attainability of homeownership as prices continue to move upward.

· Housing stock in major Canadian centres will improve as municipalities focus on redevelopment and revitalization.

RE/MAX Housing Market Outlook 2012…3